CITIZEN Bola Tinubu joined the famous 2012 protest against President Goodluck Jonathan’s petrol subsidy removal, but he has invested energy in ensuring the imminent #EndBadGovernance demonstration does not come to fruition.
On January 2, 2012, Mr Tinubu joined the Occupy Nigeria protest to force President Jonathan to rescind his decision to raise premium motor spirit (PMS) or petrol price from N87 to N145. Former Nigerian Labour Congress President, Mr Adams Oshiomole; former President Muhammadu Buhari; Nobel Laurette, Prof Wole Soyinka; former APC Chairman, Mr John Oyegun; former Kaduna State Governor, Masir El-Rufai, among many others, were all part of the protest.
During the demonstration, Mr Tinubu had accused President Jonathan of breaking the social contract with the people, which he personally signed, noting that President Jonathan must not remove petrol subsidies.
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“Government must modify the sudden and complete removal of the subsidy. Either we restore the subsidy or use the funds for other social purposes,” Mr Tinubu said on January 11, 2012, during the protest.
“If we are to use the funds for other programmes, these programmes shall be placed on parallel track with the subsidy. As more of these programmes are ready to go on line, then the subsidy can be lifted in phases. In this way, the public is assured government will not lower its total expenditure on their behalf, thus maintaining the spirit central to the social contract.”
Change of course after being president
Eleven years after these comments, Mr Tinubu became president of Nigeria, winning the controversial 2023 presidential election. However, he has done exactly what he accused former President Jonathan of, removing petrol subsidies that had kept fuel at less than N200 per litre.
He had announced that “subsidy is gone” on the day of his inauguration on May 29, 2023. Despite that, he still pays PMS subsidies even as a litre of fuel has now exceeded N600.
In 2012, Nigeria’s subsidy payment stood at N1.35 trillion, according to the defunct Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA). In 2023, under President Tinubu, the nation paid N3.6 trillion in petrol subsidies and will spend N5.4 trillion in 2024 despite denials by government officials. Yet PMS price is nearly N700 per litre at several filling stations.
Even with high petrol prices, scarcity has not abated. As at the time of publishing this story, several petrol stations in Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Onitsha and Ibadan, among others, have no PMS.
Black market operators sell a litre of petrol at N1200 to N1,500 across the country.
In a statement seen by Economy Post, state-owned oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, said the tightness in fuel supply and distribution witnessed in some parts of Lagos and the FCT was as a result of a hitch in the discharge operations of a couple of vessels.
“The Company further states that it is working round the clock with all stakeholders to resolve the situation and restore normalcy in the operations,” said NNPC chief corporate communications officer, Mr Olufemi Soneye.
“NNPC has always given this kind of excuse any time petrol is scarce, so this is not new,” said a social critic, Ambrose Kodili.
Worsening cost of living
In June 2012, headline inflation stood at 12.9 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In June 2024, inflation was put at 34.19 percent.
Under Tinubu, a 50kg bag of rice stands at over N80,000 as against less than N9,000 in 2012. Prices of tomatoes, pepper, onions, eggs, beans, maize, among others, have more than tripled since 2012, prompting the kind of protest Nigerians are clamouring for.
Tinubu and his officials working to stop protest
Though Mr Tinubu has refused to threaten those pushing for the protest, people around him or those supporting his political party – the All Progressives Congress (APC) – have tried to push back on the fundamental right of citizens to protest.
“The politically instigated protesters want President Tinubu to reinstate the corruption-prone subsidy regime and probe past and present Nigerian leaders, who have looted the treasury,” Tinubu’s spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, said on Monday, July 29, on his X account.
On July 27, he posted, “Omoyele Sowore is mobilizing the gullible for protest in Nigeria as he sits pretty in his home , with family in New Jersey, United States. Be wise, the easily excitable Nigerians!”
On July 29, Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mr Mohammed Idris, said protest was no longer necessary as Mr Tinubu was already addressing Nigeria’s problems.
In spite of what he said, fuel queues is still seen around filling stations and petrol scarcity is widespread. A 50kg bag of rice, which is a staple in Nigeria, still sells at over N80,000 and prices of medicines are still so high for patients.
Director-General of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Professionals Council, Dr. Seyi Bamigbade, recently urged those pushing the protest to stop.
“I also want to use this opportunity to our traditional and religious leaders to use their large platforms to call on our younger ones who are planning to stage a protest to have a rethink,” he said on July 26.
“President Bola Tinubu has promised to take steps to address the nation’s economic challenges and I think we must exercise a little more patience. The recent approval of N70, 000 minimum wage is one of these measures.”
Mr Tinubu’s administration has deployed all of its arsenal to talk people out of the impending protest. Some of his closest allies known for constant protests or support for protest have kept quiet.
Some commentators say the government is afraid the violence may degenerate into violence, given the level of hunger and anger in Nigeria at the moment.
“I think they are afraid it may end up like #End SARS,” said a human rights lawyer, Ms Ese Dunobi.
In October 2020, an #EndSARS protest erupted to campaign against police brutality. However, it led to violence and looting, climaxing into the October 20 shooting of civilian protesters by Nigerian soldiers at Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos.
“So, what they are doing is to use public relations to show the protesters the negative side of the protest. What they are doing isn’t bad, but I am not comfortable with how they make it look like a taboo for the people to protest,” Ms Dunobi said.
Amnesty International on its recent Facebook post warned the Nigerian government not to threaten protesters.
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“People have a right to protest peacefully, and the Nigerian authorities have a duty to respect, facilitate and protect this right. Harmful rhetorics should not be the priority of the Nigerian government officials, at a time millions of people are on the brink of starvation and deep poverty,” it said.
No violence is entertained
Analysts say even if the protest goes ahead, there must not be violence, maiming or looting.
“No looting, no violence during the protest,” Ms Dunobi noted. “But it is the responsibility of the police and other law enforcement agencies to see that these do not happen. It is not the role of protesters,” she added.
